New Delhi, January 10, 2026 – India’s strategic dependence on discounted Russian oil may be reaching a turning point. A detailed analysis of recent trade data suggests that shifting away from Russian imports in favor of other sources, such as the United States, would currently have a negligible impact on India’s fiscal health.
The Shrinking Russian Discount Since the onset of the geopolitical shifts in 2022, India benefited significantly from “cheap” Russian crude. However, data from November 2025 shows a dramatic shift. India imported Russian oil at $482.7 per tonne, while the average global import cost stood at $498.8 per tonne. This represents a discount of only $16.1 per tonne—a far cry from the deep discounts seen in previous years.
The US Alternative In contrast, oil from the United States was priced at $523.3 per tonne during the same period. While this carries a premium of $24.6 per tonne, the gap between Russian and US oil has narrowed enough that the overall financial burden on the Indian exchequer remains manageable.
Fiscal Reality Check Energy experts point out that the prevailing low global oil prices provide India with a unique “safety window.” Because the base price of oil is low, the small difference in premiums and discounts between suppliers does not significantly alter the landed cost of crude.
This data empowers Indian policymakers to prioritize energy security and diplomatic flexibility over mere cost-saving, as the economic incentive to stick exclusively with Russian crude continues to diminish.
