MUMBAI – For three decades, the equation was simple: whoever held the heart of the Marathi voter held the keys to the BMC. Today’s exit polls suggest that equation has been permanently broken.
The projections indicate that while Uddhav Thackeray’s faction retained the loyalty of the traditional Marathi-speaking demographic, they are set to lose control of Asia’s richest municipal corporation. This points to a strategic checkmate by the BJP-led Mahayuti. By consolidating the North Indian, Gujarati, and cosmopolitan vote—and slicing away a portion of the Marathi vote through Eknath Shinde’s influence—the ruling alliance appears to have rendered the Thackeray “core vote” numerically insufficient.
This is a watershed moment for the Shiv Sena (UBT). Retaining the “Marathi Manoos” was their primary survival strategy, yet the exit polls show a ceiling to this support. The anticipated defeat suggests that voters in the expanded suburbs prioritized infrastructure and development alignment with the state and central governments over the emotive appeals of regional pride. The fortress of Mumbai has been breached, not from without, but by a changing demographic reality within.
