NAIROBI: Is history about to repeat itself in Kenya? A sharp new analysis suggests that the East African powerhouse is teetering on the edge of significant electoral violence, not due to ancient tribal hatreds, but modern institutional decay.
The “Shambolic” Precedent According to recent observations, the warning signs are blinking red. The by-elections held in November 2025 were described as “shambolic and violent,” severely damaging public confidence in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC). With less than 20 months until the next general election, the referee—the IEBC—is seen by many as compromised.
The AI Threat Unlike the violence of 2007/2008, the threat in 2026 has a digital face. Experts warn that Artificial Intelligence (AI) and deepfakes are poised to turbocharge disinformation. In an environment where trust is already thin, synthetic audio and video could be used to delegitimise results before a single vote is cast, providing a pretext for state repression.
State-Generated Violence The core argument is that Kenyan electoral violence is rarely spontaneous; it is often state-generated. With President William Ruto expected to defend his seat, and international restraints on political violence weakening, the checks and balances that previously held the country back from the brink are eroding. The “Gen Z” protests of 2024 proved that the youth are a potent political force. Analysts predict they will return to the streets this year. The question remains: Will the state respond with reform or repression?
